Business development forecast
In the 2025 financial year, loan loss provisions remained largely unchanged. Rentenbank expects only minor fluctuations in loan loss provisions in 2026. No significant changes are anticipated for the volume-weighted average credit quality of the loan portfolio, which is rated AA. This is supported by the low unsecured portion of the credit portfolio of 8.1% and the stable development, with counterparties continuing to have strong credit ratings. Rentenbank continuously monitors the economic performance of its counterparties. In 2025, there was no need for specific loan loss provisions (specific valuation allowances, and none are included in the planning for 2026.
To forecast future net assets, financial position and results of operations, annual and multi-year plans are prepared over a five-year horizon. These include planning for new business, portfolio development, capital, income and costs, as well as adverse scenarios. In addition, the planning includes key regulatory metrics relevant for management purposes and a forecast of the development of risk-bearing capacity. The forecasts set out below relate in each case to the plan for 2026.
Planning for the 2026 financial year
Under the current planning assumptions, the “Promotional Activity” segment is expected to show an average portfolio broadly in line with the previous year, with largely unchanged lending and funding margins in new business. Although planned new business margins for 2026 are below the margins on maturing positions, the reduction in provisions for subsidies in special promotional loans results overall in a moderate increase in planned net interest income in the “Promotional Activity” segment. The reduction in provisions is due to a change in presentation and is not related to the actual subsidies granted.
Special promotional loans will continue to be the main focus of lending activity. Rentenbank is planning new business of EUR 6.2 billion for 2026.
In the “Promotional Activity” segment, the portfolio of securities as well as registered bonds and promissory notes is expected to remain broadly at the 2025 level.
In 2022, Rentenbank expanded its promotional offering for financing start-ups aligned with its promotional mandate to include investments in venture capital funds. To date, commitments in the three-digit million euro range have already been made. Further investments in the mid double-digit million euro range are planned for 2026.
In the “Capital Investment”, Rentenbank expects interest income in 2026 to be slightly above the previous year’s level. This is due primarily to new business yields exceeding the yields on maturing investments, as well as the investment of new allocations.
Net interest income in the “Treasury Management” segment is expected to remain at the current level in 2026 due to the continued narrowing of margins.
Overall, a moderately increasing trend in net interest income across the three segments is planned for 2026.
The number of employees is expected to increase further in 2026.
Following a decline in the previous year, the number of training days per employee is expected to rise moderately.
Administrative expenses for 2026 are expected to be below the previous year’s level. The anticipated increase in personnel expenses is likely to be more than offset by a decline in IT consulting expenses. Against the backdrop of developments in income and costs, an increase in the operating result before “Loan loss provisions / valuation effects” is planned overall for 2026. Rentenbank will continue to be able to deliver its planned promotional activities in full from its ongoing income.
As a result of the expected moderate increase in net interest income and the decline in administrative expenses, the cost-income ratio is expected to decrease slightly compared with 2025.
Rentenbank’s ESG ratings are expected to remain at least at their current level.
Its corporate citizenship is also expected to remain broadly in line with the previous financial year.