Opportunities and risks

Compared with the results planned for 2026, changes in the underlying conditions may give rise to additional opportunities and risks for business development.

The further development of the economic situation in Germany will remain subject to uncertainty in 2026. In addition to weak domestic economic momentum, geopolitical tensions are having a negative impact on the global economy. These factors could contribute to a pronounced reluctance to invest and thereby impair economic development. Against this backdrop, the risk of a persistently subdued or declining economic environment remains.

In such a scenario, the key factors affecting opportunities and risks, in addition to loan demand, are developments in interest rates and credit spreads. However, owing to Rentenbank’s business model as a promotional bank, the opportunities and risks for its net assets, financial position and results of operations are limited.

In an economically uncertain environment, Rentenbank’s own credit spreads have generally proved relatively stable on the basis of its rating. A widening of counterparties’ credit spreads would then have a positive effect on net interest income. Rising interest rates would likewise have a positive effect on net interest income, as Rentenbank invests its equity over the long term in fixed-income positions.

For net assets, this would have a temporary adverse effect through an increase in unrealised losses. In a deteriorating economic environment, there is a risk that credit quality in the credit portfolio could worsen and/or that loan demand, and thus the volume of new business, could decline. In such an environment, the economic conditions for venture capital investments would also deteriorate, increasing the risk of impairments and defaults.

Further reporting on risks is provided in the Risk Report section.

Additional burdens on administrative expenses could arise from further regulatory requirements that are not yet known. This could lead to higher IT and personnel costs. In addition, further changes to the IT infrastructure may become necessary beyond the investments already planned. As part of the refurbishment of the listed bank building on Hochstrasse, adverse changes to planning assumptions may arise, which would result in correspondingly higher costs.